From 2016 to 2024, Latino voters shifted roughly 32 points toward Republicans. According to early estimates, that entire rightward shift was undone in a single election last Tuesday.
On today’s podcast, I sit down with longtime friend of the pod Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, to unpack one of the biggest stories of the 2026 midterms. Even Carlos, who expected Democrats to recover some ground, was surprised by the magnitude.
Of course, a 32-point swing doesn’t mean the same voters moved right and then back left. The Latino electorate is growing and changing, and who turns out matters alongside who switches sides. One striking finding from early voter-file data: In Georgia and Texas, young Latina women voted at higher rates than young white women, reversing the usual turnout gap.
We dig into how those forces reinforced each other, why the economy and immigration contributed to Republicans’ losses, and why Democrats’ recovery looks different in Texas and Florida. We also ask a broader question: What makes Latino voters so open to changing their minds?
After 2024, there was plenty of talk about a lasting Republican realignment. After 2026, it may be tempting to declare that Latino voters have “come home” to Democrats. Carlos explains why both parties should be wary of treating one election’s results as a lasting arrangement.
