A 2028 Democratic Primary Draft, Live With Nate Silver

On Wednesday afternoon,

Nate Silver

and I went live on Substack to host our first ever 2028 Democratic primary draft. We said it was “way-too-early,” but I’m not sure that’s right. The potential candidates themselves certainly don’t seem to think so. Look at just about any ambitious Democrat and it will be clear that they are making moves: doing arena tours, starting podcasts, showcasing their abilities to “get sh*t done.” So we took the opportunity to put our early assumptions for 2028 on the record.

Nate put together the scoring system for this draft and it goes as follows:

• 25 points for becoming the nominee

• 5 points for officially running

• 5 points for surviving (not officially withdrawing) before the first DNC-recognized primary or caucus

• 4 points per state or territory won before Super Tuesday (officially recognized contests by DNC only)

• 2 points per state or territory won on or after Super Tuesday (officially recognized contests by DNC only)

• 1 bonus point per state won with >= 15 electoral votes a…